Latest from Lyxor
09 Dec 2019: Trade risks loom large
Global equities fell over the week on the latest trade war developments. The US restored tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina and imposed a USD 2.4bn levy on French imports. Further tariffs could follow after the WTO ruled against the EU in the Airbus subsidies case. High-frequency data in the US, including the manufacturing ISM were disappointing. However, strong non-farm payrolls and further pick up in wage growth suggest US economic activity remains strong. Meanwhile, factory order figures in Germany showed that machinery and car makers, a core part of the country’s industry, are suffering. There were some slight positives from China as the official manufacturing PMI ended six months of contraction, moving back above 50 to 50.2.
Next week, no changes are expected from the Fed at its upcoming FOMC meeting. In fact, the central bank is likely to maintain policy rates at their current levels over H1 2020. On Thursday the UK holds its third general election since 2015, with the Brexit crisis still unresolved. The latest polls are pointing to a Parliamentary majority for Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative party. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde’s first policy meeting as president of the ECB will be closely watched for indications of her leadership style and tone. China will release trade credit and inflation data next week. While Chinese trade is still being affected by higher tariffs, it should benefit from a positive base effect, and credit growth data may benefit from a seasonal pick-up.
Latest performance
Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Figures reported in local currency terms. Past performance is no guide to future returns. Data as at
Our key calls
Week commencing 09/12/2019
Benefit from yield curve steepening in the US
Despite signs of weakness in the business sector, we believe US economic growth will hold up next year, supported by the resilient private sector, and we don’t expect a recession before 2021. In fact, there should be a mild cyclical recovery over H1 next year, and this would enable further steepening of the US yield curve.
Buy European equities
The risk of a hard Brexit has fallen, and while the German economy’s growth is likely to be weak in Q4 it should gain traction over the first half of next year, supported by easing uncertainty about global trade. Reduced political risks overall and a mild cyclical upswing should support further upside for broad European equity indices over the coming quarters. We maintain our preference for consumer-led sectors and industrials.
Hold Japanese equities for the long term
We believe Japanese equities have plenty of scope to provide further strong returns over the longer term as they still look cheap on a cyclically adjusted basis. The cyclically adjusted dividend yield is currently around 1.5%, a level that has historically been consistent with future annualised returns of 13–15% (pre-dividends). This suggests it’s not too late to buy.
Things we are watching out for
The Main Event
Lyxor strategists on the key moments in the week ahead
15
July
Coming soon...
Other major events
4 more things to put in the diary
09
Dec
meddling
11
Dec
FOMC meeting (with forecasts)
12
Dec
UK elections, ECB meeting with Lagarde
15
Dec
US tariff deadline 15% tariff on ~$200B
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These are the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists as at 18 September euro sto2019. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/ or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees. Click here for more.
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