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Société par actions simplifiée (simplified private limited company) with a capital stock of 161 106 300 euros as of November 5th, 2013

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17 May 2019

The emerging solution to investors’ search for yield

Nothing seems to be making developed-market bond yields rise at the moment, leaving investors with a serious headache – where can they find the income they need? One answer might be in emerging market bonds. Even though they’ve rallied with most other risky assets this year, there’s reason to believe they could rise further from here. 


An expanding market

Bond markets have become an increasingly important source of financing for both the public and private sectors since the mid-1990s, especially in emerging markets. Several developing countries have opened their local markets to foreign investors over this time to widen and diversify their investor base. Foreign participation has also helped spur the development of robust market infrastructure and more transparent market practice. Emerging debt now accounts for nearly 30% of the total global fixed income market.

The growth of emerging debt within the global bond market ($bn)

em blog graph 1

Sources: JP Morgan, Bank of America, as of December 2018


In high demand

Recent demand for emerging debt has been driven by investors searching for returns above inflation at a time when US Treasury yields are low and those of German Bunds have fallen below zero once again.  Barring the recent market downturn, there have been strong inflows into the asset class since the beginning of year and these have been accompanied by an impressive rally in emerging market rates, especially in China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil.

em graph 2
* ETFs listed in Europe. Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, Bloomberg, data as at 05/05/2019

A supportive backdrop

Can emerging bonds rally even further this year? Subdued US rates expectations and easier external funding conditions continue to offer breathing space for those emerging markets with heavy FX and / or external debt burdens.  Many emerging countries have started to improve their trade balances through cheaper exports and by fighting inflation via rate hikes. Most hold relatively high foreign currency reserves, which could help them service their debt if necessary. What’s more, the market volatility in late 2018 led many emerging issuers to put off offering new debt. The level of supply was 15% lower in the first quarter of 2019 compared to Q1 last year and future supply is likely to remain contained. 


Issuance for the first quarter of each year

Hard-currency emerging market debt issuance (US$ bn)

em graph 3

For 2019, figures are as at 26 March 2019. Source: Refinitiv, Lyxor International Asset Management

There are other supportive factors to consider. Lower inflationary pressures mean there is ample scope for central banks to cut rates in Asia and elsewhere. The outlook for the US dollar is quite stable at present, providing support to the outlook for hard-currency bonds. Emerging bond investors will also be carefully assessing whether the rebound in Chinese growth continues into the second half of the year and into 2020, as this is likely to have big implications for the asset class.

Passive and active emerging debt investments with Lyxor 

At Lyxor, we offer both passive and active emerging debt strategies. If you’re looking to closely track the performance of an emerging-market bond index, our ETF replicates an index of large, liquid USD-denominated government bonds issued by 20 emerging countries. The index is well diversified, with the Middle East & Africa accounting for over a third of its holdings, Latin America over a quarter, and about a third split between Asia Pacific and Europe. And because the underlying bonds are issued in hard currency (USD), there is no exposure to emerging FX risk. If credit risk is a concern, it’s worth noting that the index is evenly split between investment-grade and high-yield bonds.

icons em

For investors looking for a strategy with the potential to provide returns above those of the broad emerging debt market, Lyxor AM has partnered with Marathon Asset Management, a global expert in corporate debt, to provide an actively managed fund that invests in hard-currency bonds issued by emerging-market sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns and corporates.  The fund uses no derivatives and takes no exposure to local rates or currencies.  It seeks to outperform its benchmark through issue selection based on Marathon’s sourcing capabilities and technical and relative value analysis. 

Find more about Lyxor’s Marathon fund

1Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, as at 31/12/2018. Efficiency data are over one year and based on the efficiency indicator created by Lyxor’s research department in 2013. It examines three components of performance: tracking error, liquidity and the buy-sell price spread. Each peer group includes the relevant Lyxor ETF share-class and the four largest ETF share classes issued by other providers, representing at least 5% market-share on the underlying index. ETF sizes are considered to be an average of assets under management over the relevant time period. The detailed methodology behind the efficiency indicator can be found in the paper ‘Measuring Performance of Exchange Traded Funds’ by Marlène Hassine and Thierry Roncalli. Statements refer to the European UCITS ETF market. Past performance is no guide to future returns.

2Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Data correct as at 13/05/2019.

FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY– This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

This document has been provided by Lyxor International Asset Management that is solely responsible for its content.

Lyxor Index Fund - Lyxor iBoxx $ Liquid Emerging Markets Sovereigns UCITS ETF - Dist, domiciled in Luxembourg is a collective investment scheme approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (FINMA) as a foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA) for distribution in Switzerland to non-Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA. The above mentioned Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) is listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.

This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

Financial intermediaries (including particularly, representatives of private banks or independent asset managers, Intermediaries) are hereby reminded on the strict regulatory requirements applicable under the CISA to any distribution of foreign collective investment schemes in Switzerland. It is each Intermediary’s sole responsibility to ensure that (i) all these requirements are put in place prior to any Intermediary distributing any of the Funds presented in this document and (ii) that otherwise, it does not take any action that could constitute distribution of collective investment schemes in Switzerland as defined in article 3 CISA and related regulation.

Any information in this document is given only as of the date of this document and is not updated as of any date thereafter.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to make an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to invest in collective investment schemes.  This document is not a prospectus as per article 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations, a listing prospectus according to the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange or any other trading venue as defined by the Swiss Financial Market Infrastructure Act of 19 June 2015 (as amended from time to time, FMIA), a simplified prospectus, a key investor information document or a prospectus as defined in the CISA.

An investment in collective investment schemes involves significant risks that are described in each prospectus or offering memorandum. Each potential investor should read the entire prospectus or offering memorandum and should carefully consider the risk warnings and disclosures before making an investment decision.

Any benchmarks/indices cited in this document are provided for information purposes only.

This document is not the result of a financial analysis and therefore is not subject to the “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association.

This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investments in financial products. 

The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Fund(s) in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, 8001 Zurich.

The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

In respect to the units/shares of the Fund(s) distributed in and from Switzerland, place of performance and jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Representative in Switzerland. 

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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