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Qualified investors within the meaning of Article 10 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (“CISA”) and the Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 22 November 2006 (“CISO”) are essentially the following:

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7.high-net-worth individuals who have confirmed in writing to a financial intermediary pursuant to section 1, or to an independent asset manager that meets the requirements described in section 6, that they wish to be considered as qualified investors (“opting-in”) and that they (a) have the knowledge required to understand the risks of the investments based on their individual education and professional experience or based on comparable experience in the financial sector and hold assets of at least CHF 500,000 (b) hold assets of at least CHF 5 million;

8.independent asset managers who fulfill the requirements described in section 6, and confirm that they will use the information on this website that refers to investment funds not approved by FINMA exclusively for clients that are regarded as qualified investors.

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This website is published by Lyxor International Asset Management (« LIAM »).

Société par actions simplifiée (simplified private limited company) with a capital stock of 72 059 696 euros

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Registered Office: 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris, France

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Responsibale person for the publication is: Lionel PAQUIN, CEO

Editing director: Nathalie BOSCHAT, Global Head Lyxor Communication (Tel.: +33 1 42 14 83 21; E-Mail: nathalie.Boschat@lyxor.com).

 

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LIAM is a French investment management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers under the UCITS Directive (2009/65/CE) and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/UE). LIAM is represented in the United Kingdom by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK (FCA reference number 435658). Lyxor AM is a registered Commodity Pool Operator and a Commodity Trading Advisor under the U.S. Commodity Futures and Trade Commission. Lyxor AM is also a member of the National Futures Association.

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Swiss Representative:  Société Générale Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, P.O. Box 1928, CH-8021 Zurich, Switzerland.

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Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable guide to the future. Market and exchange rate movements may cause the capital value of investments, and the income from them, to go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the amount originally invested. Investments in emerging markets may result in higher risks and volatility due to political and economic instability and less developed markets and systems.

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25 Feb 2020

The coronavirus outbreak highlights a better way to invest in China


FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY– This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

The outbreak and spread of a coronavirus from the central Chinese city of Wuhan has triggered a risk-off global mood. Aside from the human cost of the illness, many of the world’s biggest companies base parts of their supply chain in China, and some are warning of decreased output and revenue due to supply-chain disruption. Markets shuddered in early February but are proving resilient as the month goes on. History suggests that any further market falls may present an opportunity for long-term investors.

What’s happened?

  • Global markets have had a turbulent few weeks as investors digested the impact of the Wuhan coronavirus, dubbed Covid-19. Globally, there have been 73,332 cases confirmed of this variant of coronavirus, and more than 2,000 deaths.  The human impact of the coronavirus has been largely confined to the Asia-Pacific region, but the commercial ramifications are already being felt across the globe, particularly in the tech and automotive sectors, as they undergo considerable supply-chain disruptions.
  • Among the highest-profile companies to report disruption from the virus are Apple – which has cut its sales expectations for Q2 2020 blaming store and factory closures – and South Korean tech company Samsung, which has been flying and sailing smartphone components into neighbouring Vietnam from China, rather than driving freight across the restricted land border between the countries. 
  • EM investors in the MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index have been partially protected from the recent sell-off, as the index has been far less volatile than its broad EM counterpart. More on this below.

What’s next?

  • Investor confidence is likely to continue to rise and fall over the coming weeks. Many observers believe that China has learned lessons from previous pandemics and is now much better placed to contain the latest outbreak. Although estimates for Q1 growth are declining, most expect the economy to bounce back from the damage done by the virus, encouraging for the longer-term outlook for multiple sectors even with short-term disruptions. The economic growth forecast for 2020 is estimated to be around 5.5%, down from 5.9% last month.1
  • Global sectors exposed to domestic Chinese growth remain vulnerable. Many businesses have shuttered temporarily for health and safety reasons. Any business involving face-to-face transactions, such as food and drink, and airlines, are particularly vulnerable. Chinese authorities are now considering direct cash infusions or mergers for the hobbled airline industry, as daily nationwide travel remains a fifth of its usual level for this time of the year. Following several high-profile outbreaks aboard cruise ships, companies operating in this industry will also remain under pressure. 
  • Given the high number of companies with parts of their supply chain in China, there are likely to further knock-on effects announced on earnings calls for affected businesses. The tech industry may face short-term disruption, but this should have little lasting impact on tech spending in 2020. The outlook looks worse for the auto sector, which faces challenges from both the decline in domestic demand and China’s position as a key parts supplier to global auto-makers. 
  •  Viral outbreaks develop in unpredictable ways and there may be more bumps in the road over the coming weeks and months. The focus will be on China’s battle to contain Covid-19 and how the economy holds up after the extended shutdowns in the country. Further policy measures aimed at supporting activity are expected over the coming weeks. 

Viral outbreaks: What history tells us

  • After nearly two decades of dealing with mutant viruses (e.g. the 2002/3 SARS scare), Asia has developed the infrastructure and ability needed to better contain the cross-border transmission of viruses. Many observers compare the coronavirus to the 2003 SARS epidemic. Although the Covid-19 virus is genetically similar to SARS, it appears milder in terms of illness and case fatality rate. Another related virus, known as MERS-CoV, has been spreading since 2012 and has led to death in 34% of the 2,499 cases recorded. 
  • By contrast, an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that had a case-fatality rate of less than 5% but infected up to a third of the world’s population. Worst-case scenarios for Covid-19 should use the Asian Flu outbreak of 1957-58 (2 million deaths) or Hong Kong Flu of 1968-69 (1 million deaths) as a base case.
  • SARS had a time-limited negative economic impact. Visitor arrivals and retail sales stabilised within three months of the outbreak being contained.2 The history of SARS and avian flu outbreaks in China suggests that market dips may present an opportunity to buy risk assets at temporarily discounted levels.
  • Research conducted over recent years (e.g. by CDC Atlanta, and the World Bank) suggests that an outbreak like that of 1968-9 would today cause excess deaths in the range of 2 million to 7.4 million, with a GDP loss of $100-200bn for the US and around $550bn for all high-income countries taken together. 
  • Although using history as a template for projections can be useful, China is a much bigger player in the global economy and financial markets now than it was 17 years ago during the SARS outbreak. The Chinese share of global exports has more than tripled since the start of the millennium.3 In 2003, China accounted for 8% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index; today that figure is over 34%.4
  • We believe an allocation to Chinese equities should be managed independently of a broader emerging equities portfolio. Adopting such an approach enables investors to take greater exposure to other markets with improving fundamentals and vary their allocation to China depending on the prevailing market conditions. More volatility for Chinese equities can be expected over the weeks ahead.
  • The volatility profiles of the MSCI EM and MSCI EM ex-China have been very different since the beginning of the outbreak, even though the two indices have fallen by similar amounts. The chart below shows that the volatility of the MSCI EM ex-China has been much lower relative to that of the MSCI EM in recent weeks than it has historically.

MSCI chart

1Source: Bloomberg consensus data as at 19/02/2020

2Source: Asian Development Bank, Economics Paper Working Series, October 2019. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/530216/ewp-591-sars-epidemic-2003-economic-costs.pdf

3Source: WTO, World Trade report 2019, November 2019 https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/wtr2019_wtr_in_depth.pdf

4Source: MSCI. Data as at 31/01/2020.

Scenarios and related products

Adverse scenario: Cover your bases
 

Source : Lyxor International Asset Management, TER & AuMs correct as at 23/01/2020

Positive scenario: Position for market rebound
 

Source : Lyxor International Asset Management, TER & AuMs correct as at 23/01/2020.

Risk Warning

This document has been provided by Lyxor International Asset Management that is solely responsible for its content.

Fund name Sub fund name Country of domicile
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor Core US Treasury 10+ Y (DR) Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor FTSE USA Minimum Variance UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor MSCI World Health Care TR UCITS ETF - Acc (EUR) Luxembourg
Lyxor  Index Fund Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Healthcare UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor MSCI World Utilities TR UCITS ETF - Acc (EUR) Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS FRANCE Lyxor Hwabao WP MSCI China A (DR) UCITS ETF - Acc France
​MULTI UNITS FRANCE Lyxor MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF - Acc EUR France
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor MSCI World Energy TR UCITS ETF - Acc (EUR) Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor MSCI World Industrials TR UCITS ETF - Acc (EUR) Luxembourg
Lyxor  Index Fund Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg

The funds that are specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange/BX Swiss / licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (Registered Funds) are collective investment schemes approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (FINMA) as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA) for distribution in Switzerland to non-Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA. The above mentioned Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange / BX Swiss.

Fund name Sub fund name Country of domicile
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor MSCI EM Ex China Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor SG Global Quality Income NTR UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
Lyxor  Index Fund Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Utilities UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
MULTI UNITS LUXEMBOURG Lyxor MSCI China UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg
Lyxor  Index Fund Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg

The funds that are not specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange/BX Swiss / licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (non-Registered Funds, and together with the Registered Funds, the Funds) are collective investment schemes not approved by the FINMA as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the CISA for distribution in Switzerland. Accordingly, the non-Registered Funds may be offered in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA and its implementing ordinance. 

Financial intermediaries (including particularly, representatives of private banks or independent asset managers, Intermediaries) are hereby reminded on the strict regulatory requirements applicable under the CISA to any distribution of foreign collective investment schemes in Switzerland. It is each Intermediary’s sole responsibility to ensure that (i) all these requirements are put in place prior to any Intermediary distributing any of the Funds presented in this document and (ii) that otherwise, it does not take any action that could constitute distribution of collective investment schemes in Switzerland as defined in article 3 CISA and related regulation.

Any information in this document is given only as of the date of this document and is not updated as of any date thereafter. 

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to make an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to invest in collective investment schemes.  This document is not a prospectus as per article 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations, a listing prospectus according to the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange or any other trading venue as defined by the Swiss Financial Market Infrastructure Act of 19 June 2015 (as amended from time to time, FMIA), a simplified prospectus, a key investor information document or a prospectus as defined in the CISA. 

An investment in collective investment schemes involves significant risks that are described in each prospectus or offering memorandum. Each potential investor should read the entire prospectus or offering memorandum and should carefully consider the risk warnings and disclosures before making an investment decision. 

Any benchmarks/indices cited in this document are provided for information purposes only.

This document is not the result of a financial analysis and therefore is not subject to the “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association. 

This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investments in financial products. 

The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Funds in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, 8001 Zurich. 
The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

In respect to the units/shares of the Funds distributed in and from Switzerland, place of performance and jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Representative in Switzerland.

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