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Qualified investors within the meaning of Article 10 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (“CISA”) and the Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 22 November 2006 (“CISO”) are essentially the following:

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7.high-net-worth individuals who have confirmed in writing to a financial intermediary pursuant to section 1, or to an independent asset manager that meets the requirements described in section 6, that they wish to be considered as qualified investors (“opting-in”) and that they (a) have the knowledge required to understand the risks of the investments based on their individual education and professional experience or based on comparable experience in the financial sector and hold assets of at least CHF 500,000 (b) hold assets of at least CHF 5 million;

8.independent asset managers who fulfill the requirements described in section 6, and confirm that they will use the information on this website that refers to investment funds not approved by FINMA exclusively for clients that are regarded as qualified investors.

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This website is published by Lyxor International Asset Management (« LIAM »).

Société par actions simplifiée (simplified private limited company) with a capital stock of 72 059 696 euros

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APE Number: 6630Z

Registered Office: 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris, France

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Responsibale person for the publication is: Lionel PAQUIN, CEO

Editing director: Nathalie BOSCHAT, Global Head Lyxor Communication (Tel.: +33 1 42 14 83 21; E-Mail: nathalie.Boschat@lyxor.com).

 

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LIAM is a French investment management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers under the UCITS Directive (2009/65/CE) and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/UE). LIAM is represented in the United Kingdom by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK (FCA reference number 435658). Lyxor AM is a registered Commodity Pool Operator and a Commodity Trading Advisor under the U.S. Commodity Futures and Trade Commission. Lyxor AM is also a member of the National Futures Association.

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Swiss Representative:  Société Générale Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, P.O. Box 1928, CH-8021 Zurich, Switzerland.

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The information on this website is exclusively intended for qualified investors with residence or domicile in Switzerland. The information on the financial products referred to in this website is expressly not directed to any person in or from any jurisdiction where the publication or availability of such products is prohibited (on grounds of residence, domicile, nationality or otherwise). Accordingly, the information contained herein does not constitute an act of distribution, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities to any person or entity in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer may not be lawfully made or access to such information is not permitted. Persons subject to local restrictions of this type must refrain from accessing this website. Investors should take advice from their own independent advisors before making an investment decision and should be aware of local laws governing investments. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the information in this website is not directed and not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities in the United States of America to or for the benefit of United States persons (being in particular nationals or residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organized under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof).

The shares are not registered under the U.S Securities Act of 1933 and may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States (including its territories or possessions) or to or for the benefit of a U.S Person (being a “United State Person” within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933 of the United States, as amended, and/or any person not included in the definition of “Non-United States Person” within the meaning of Section 4.7 (a) (1) (iv) of the rules of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.). No U.S federal or state securities commission has reviewed or approved this document and more generally any documents with respect to or in connection with the fund. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offence.

Not all of the funds accessible on this website are registered for distribution in or from Switzerland to non-qualified investors. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) publishes a list of foreign collective investment schemes which are registered for distribution in or from Switzerland on their website. Société Générale Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, P.O. Box 1928, CH-8021 Zurich, Switzerland., is the representative and paying agent in Switzerland of the funds which are registered for distribution in or from Switzerland and for non-registered funds that are distributed exclusively to qualified investors.

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Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable guide to the future. Market and exchange rate movements may cause the capital value of investments, and the income from them, to go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the amount originally invested. Investments in emerging markets may result in higher risks and volatility due to political and economic instability and less developed markets and systems.

Subscriptions for investment in any fund mentioned on the website may only be made on the basis of the relevant prospectus, the simplified prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document ("KIID"), respectively, and the most recent annual financial statements (or semi-annual financial statements if published thereafter).

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11 Jun 2019

Heading for safer havens

Government bond yields have retreated since the world’s major central banks began their retreat from policy normalisation at the beginning of this year. Equity markets meanwhile have notched up near double-digit performance, but could it all be about to change?

Resurgent policy uncertainty, mainly relating to global trade conflicts, has amplified market concerns over the risks of a global slowdown just when cyclical downside risks are materialising. We may finally have reached the beginning of the end of the cycle.


The end is nigh

The economic backdrop today is one of moderating growth and low inflation. This has helped keep nominal interest rates near historic lows despite a decade of economic expansion. The current cycle’s longevity matches the best on record. Fundamentals still look relatively strong for now, with growth of between 2.0% and 2.5% likely for this year and strong employment figures so far. However, persistently low inflation prints and the escalation of the trade war between the US and China increase the chances of the cycle coming to an end.

Many market commentators have been using the slope of the treasuries yield curve as a leading indicator of recession in the US. History tells us that yield curve inversions have preceded each of the last seven recessions. There have only been two exceptions to this rule since the 60s. While such inversions do not in themselves cause recessions, they do serve to reveal any uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of GDP growth. The Federal Reserve of Cleveland publishes updates of such analysis and recently reported that the probability of a US recession materialising in the next year has increased to almost 35%. It was just above 15% in September last year.  

US Yield curve and Real GDP growth

Chart 1

Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, data as at 06/06/2019. Past results are not a reliable indicator of future results.

On top of all of the disruptive policy uncertainty, the US is set to reverse its expansive fiscal policy. A compromise between the Republican White House and the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives looks distant – especially as we are already in the early stages of the next presidential election campaign

Fed impact falls

The future shape of the yield curve largely depends on the Fed’s outlook for economic activity and how it assesses progress towards employment and inflation goals. The data-dependent nature of its policymaking prompted a pause in policy normalisation (rate hikes) at the start of the year. And, when looking back at its policy actions during the latter stages of the previous two lengthy expansions, you can see a real sensitivity to any moderation of growth while inflation posed little upside risks. The FOMC dot-plot still holds the option of another hike in 2020, but the bond futures market is strongly pricing a rate cut by year-end. There could even be one as early as September. Recent comments from Fed officials on how closely they are monitoring trade dispute developments have also comforted the markets.  


Market implied probabilities on Fed Funds move – FOMC September meeting 

chart2

Source: Bloomberg, data as at 06/06/2019. Calculations are using Fed Funds futures data. 

Should the Fed start cutting interest rates or even implement some form of quantitative easing on early signs of a recession, it will certainly have an impact. However, it may not be enough to hold back the tide. Any policy change will have a lesser effect as the central bank’s balance sheet is much, much bigger than it was, and interest rates are already at historical lows. There’s little doubt the Fed will refrain from acting too strongly, too fast at the risk of disappointing markets.

More than a Sino-American problem

The greater uncertainty and the lesser confidence that have come with the US/China trade war go beyond the bilateral relationship. In fact, they’ve been magnified by other governments’ worries about what could happen to their own trading relationships with the US – especially the EU and Japan – which are both currently trying to negotiate trade terms.

Aside from having the capacity to depress international trade directly, these ongoing uncertainties have already weighed on general business sentiment and are likely to weigh on investment activity. A rebound in the broader macro picture looks unlikely should this environment persist.


Seeking shelter

Risk assets may continue to struggle in the coming weeks and asset allocations could need to change. Augmenting safer haven exposures like treasuries and smart beta strategies like quality income (see our latest update on this strategy) and low volatility at the expense of riskier strategies makes sense while the clouds of uncertainty linger.  

In these conditions, protecting more of what you already have may be front of mind. Our 50+ problem-solvers help you rise to any challenge, simply and cost-effectively. Whether you’re looking to find shelter against global markets volatility or guard against currency moves, we offer a range of unique and ground-breaking solutions.

Relevant products

Risk Warning​

FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY– This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

This document has been provided by Lyxor International Asset Management that is solely responsible for its content.

Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor SG Global Quality Income NTR UCITS ETF - Dist Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor SG European Quality Income NTR UCITS ETF - Dist Luxembourg No
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor FTSE USA Minimum Variance UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg No
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor Smart Cash GBP UCITS ETF Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor Core iBoxx $ Treasuries 1-3Y (DR) UCITS ETF - Dist Luxembourg Yes

The funds that are not specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange / licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (non-Registered Funds, and together with the Registered Funds, the Funds) are collective investment schemes not approved by the FINMA as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the CISA for distribution in Switzerland. Accordingly, the non-Registered Funds may be offered in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA and its implementing ordinance. The funds that are specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange / licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (Registered Funds) are collective investment schemes approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (FINMA) as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA) for distribution in Switzerland to non-Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA. The above mentioned Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.

This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

Financial intermediaries (including particularly, representatives of private banks or independent asset managers, Intermediaries) are hereby reminded on the strict regulatory requirements applicable under the CISA to any distribution of foreign collective investment schemes in Switzerland. It is each Intermediary’s sole responsibility to ensure that (i) all these requirements are put in place prior to any Intermediary distributing any of the Funds presented in this document and (ii) that otherwise, it does not take any action that could constitute distribution of collective investment schemes in Switzerland as defined in article 3 CISA and related regulation.

Any information in this document is given only as of the date of this document and is not updated as of any date thereafter.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to make an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to invest in collective investment schemes.  This document is not a prospectus as per article 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations, a listing prospectus according to the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange or any other trading venue as defined by the Swiss Financial Market Infrastructure Act of 19 June 2015 (as amended from time to time, FMIA), a simplified prospectus, a key investor information document or a prospectus as defined in the CISA.

An investment in collective investment schemes involves significant risks that are described in each prospectus or offering memorandum. Each potential investor should read the entire prospectus or offering memorandum and should carefully consider the risk warnings and disclosures before making an investment decision.

Any benchmarks/indices cited in this document are provided for information purposes only.

This document is not the result of a financial analysis and therefore is not subject to the “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association.

This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investments in financial products. 

The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Funds in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, 8001 Zurich.

The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

In respect to the units/shares of the Funds distributed in and from Switzerland, place of performance and jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Representative in Switzerland. 

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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