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18 Jun 2018

4 things to do in Q3


Chanchan Samader

By Chan Samadder, Head of Equity ETF

Around now, thoughts tend to turn to the holidays and long, relaxing days by the beach. But before reaching for the suncream you have to check the forecasts and ensure your portfolio also has the requisite protection. Like an unruly child running by the pool, or an English central defender dwelling on the ball, today’s markets and politics demand constant attention. Here’s our guide to a successful and stress-free summer:

1. Be prepared for bad weather


We advise caution currently given trade wars, geopolitical tensions, rising populism and the omnipresent uncertainly over the timing and/or extent of the withdrawal from ‘super loose’ monetary policies. We expect some stormy conditions – especially among equities – as the cost of debt spirals and the global economy peaks. Decent returns will be harder to find, especially in more mainstream destinations, so for peace of mind we’re focusing on diversifying by getting off the beaten track and using risk reducers and other protection strategies.

ETFs to consider 

Fund name  Bloomberg ticker  TER Asset class
Lyxor FTSE USA Minimum Variance MVAU

0.20%

Equities

Lyxor FTSE Europe Minimum Variance 

MVAE

0.20%

Equities

Lyxor FTSE US Quality Low Vol Dividend 

BUCK

0.19%

Equities

Lyxor FTSE UK Quality Low Vol Dividend 

DOSH

0.19%

Equities

Lyxor SG Global Quality Income NTR

SGQI

0.45%

Equities

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, TER as a 13 June 2018 

 

2. Choose your destination wisely​

There are some bright spots however, so we’re not entirely risk-averse. Europe’s busy political agenda could delay policy tightening, and the current soft patch is temporary in our eyes. Any rebound should trigger a catch-up of earnings growth and support stocks. For now though, political issues ensure we’re not as positive as we once were but France looks attractive on the back of strong structural reforms. We continue to favour cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, as well as construction and materials. They are well positioned to benefit from the domestic recovery and have been deleveraging and improving their solvency in the last couple of years. We’re steering clear of most conventional European bonds.

 

Euro area earnings catching up

12-month trailing EPS for MSCI Indices

 

                  Chart 1

THE FIGURES RELATING TO PAST PERFORMANCES REFER TO PAST PERIODS AND ARE NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR FOR FUTURE RESULTS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO HISTORICAL MARKET DATA.
Sources:  Lyxor International AM, Bloomberg, Citigroup, SG Cross-Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation/ Equity Strategy as at 13/06/2018

In the US, the headwinds are such that they should keep the Fed tied to its current path. We expect Treasuries to remain de-coupled from political tensions in Europe and to gradually drift higher from here. We expect lower returns from equities, especially as there’s little room for additional economic impetus beyond the tax cuts and the mid-term elections threaten some turbulence. Corporate buying should at least provide some support. Credit (whether high or low quality) is off our radar as the cost of debt is rising at a time when leverage is at all-time highs and recession may be drawing closer.

We remain positive on commodities, but prefer base metals. Both oil and base metals should continue to be supported by strong fundamentals as recovering demand meets with struggling supply. Oil comes with a little more downside risk however. We’re also interested in those commodity-linked assets, like the FTSE 100, which lagged the initial commodity price recovery. 

 

Commodities’ performance at different stages of the economic cycle*

                     Chart 2

*Different stages of the economic cycle determined through the shape of US yield curve. Analysis since January 2000. Average performance of assets for each period. THE FIGURES RELATING TO PAST PERFORMANCES REFER TO PAST PERIODS AND ARE NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR FOR FUTURE RESULTS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO HISTORICAL MARKET DATA.Sources:  Lyxor International AM, Bloomberg, SG Cross-Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation/ Equity Strategy as at 13/06/2018

Inflation as an asset class remains of interest, and breakevens may represent the path of least resistance over the coming months. They also offer diversification benefits which could prove beneficial as we head for the exit from a low inflation, low volatility world.  

ETFs to consider 

Fund name  Bloomberg ticker  TER Asset Class
Lyxor CAC 40  CAC

0.25%

Equities

Lyxor MSCI EMU Small Cap  MMS

0.40%

Equities

Lyxor Commodities Thomson Reuters/ CoreCommodity CRB  CRB

0.35%

Commodities

Lyxor MSCI World Energy TR  NRGW

0.30%

Equities

Lyxor US$ 10Y Inflation Expectations  INFU

0.25%

Fixed income

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, TER as a 13 June 2018 

 

3. Consider something more exotic​​

With developed markets overcrowded and overvalued, it could be time to spread your wings to some more exotic destinations. We like China, but it could be time to include a few more EM destinations in our plans. A number of other countries offer external surpluses, low inflation and reasonable growth, amd could now be better value after the recent sell-off. This should provide protection when the greenback’s run of strength eventually gives way. It could be time to renew your focus on Asia’s domestic stories given external risks might rising. Onshore Chinese equities - benefit from reasonable growth, increased accessibility and low correlation with developed equities.  ASEAN markets also appeal as could, in time, India.

ETFs to consider 

Fund name Bloomberg ticker  TER Asset class
Lyxor China Enterprise (HSCEI) 

ASI

0.65%

Equities

Lyxor MSCI India 

INR

0.85%

Equities

Lyxor MSCI Indonesia

INDO

0.55%

Equities

Lyxor MSCI Malaysia 

MAL

0.65%

Equities

Lyxor Thailand 

THA

0.45%

Equities

 

 

4. Travel only in good company ​

The US economy has been more resilient than its counterparts in Japan and the eurozone. However, its economic surprise indicator has already passed its peak. Corporate bonds should come under pressure as corporate debt piles up - further encouraged by fiscal reform - and the Fed tightens. If you do have to hold credit, we’d suggest making any journey brief. When debt fears rise and balance sheets come under the microscope, equity volatility also tends to increase, providing an incentive to reduce or reshape your equity exposures. A greater weighting to quality income or value stocks could be a solution at this late stage of the cycle.

At this stage, credit spreads have remained quiet

               Chart 3


THE FIGURES RELATING TO PAST PERFORMANCES REFER TO PAST PERIODS AND ARE NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR FOR FUTURE RESULTS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO HISTORICAL MARKET DATA. Sources:  Lyxor International AM, Bloomberg, BEA, SG Cross-Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation/ Economics as at 13/06/2018

 ETFs to consider 

Fund name 

Bloomberg Ticker

TER

Asset class

Lyxor FTSE US Quality Low Vol Dividend 

BUCK

0.19%

Equities

Lyxor Russell 1000 Value 

RUSV

0.19%

Equities

Lyxor SG Global Value Beta 

SGVB

0.40%

Equities

Lyxor MSCI EMU Value 

VAL

0.40%

Equities

 

All views & opinion: Lyxor Equity ETF & Lyxor Cross Asset Research teams, as at 13 June 2018. Charts sourced from SG Cross Asset Research team (“Expect less for longer”).Past performance is no guide to future returns. *All TERs correct as at 13 June 2018.

Important information

FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY– This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

This document has been provided by Lyxor International Asset Management that is solely responsible for its content.

Fund table

The funds that are specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange and licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (Registered Funds) are collective investment schemes approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (FINMA) as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA) for distribution in Switzerland to non-Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA. The above mentioned Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.

The funds that are not specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange and licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (non-Registered Funds, and together with the Registered Funds, the Funds) are collective investment schemes not approved by the FINMA as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the CISA for distribution in Switzerland. Accordingly, the non-Registered Funds may be offered in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA and its implementing ordinance. 

This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

Financial intermediaries (including particularly, representatives of private banks or independent asset managers, Intermediaries) are hereby reminded on the strict regulatory requirements applicable under the CISA to any distribution of foreign collective investment schemes in Switzerland. It is each Intermediary’s sole responsibility to ensure that (i) all these requirements are put in place prior to any Intermediary distributing any of the Funds presented in this document and (ii) that otherwise, it does not take any action that could constitute distribution of collective investment schemes in Switzerland as defined in article 3 CISA and related regulation.

Any information in this document is given only as of the date of this document and is not updated as of any date thereafter.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to make an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to invest in collective investment schemes.  This document is not a prospectus as per article 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations, a listing prospectus according to the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange or any other trading venue as defined by the Swiss Financial Market Infrastructure Act of 19 June 2015 (as amended from time to time, FMIA), a simplified prospectus, a key investor information document or a prospectus as defined in the CISA.

An investment in collective investment schemes involves significant risks that are described in each prospectus or offering memorandum. Each potential investor should read the entire prospectus or offering memorandum and should carefully consider the risk warnings and disclosures before making an investment decision.

Any benchmarks/indices cited in this document are provided for information purposes only.

This document is not the result of a financial analysis and therefore is not subject to the “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association.

This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investments in financial products. 

The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Funds in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, 8001 Zurich.

The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

In respect to the units/shares of the Funds distributed in and from Switzerland, place of performance and jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Representative in Switzerland. 

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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