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01 Jul 2019

4 equity calls for the summer

This week, we take stock of opportunities in equities ahead of the summer, following up on our guide to bond investing last week. The recent worsening of the macro-economic backdrop calls for caution across the board as much uncertainty lies ahead.


1. More turbulence ahead for global equities


Markets may not fully discount trade war risks and the full extent of its impact on global trade, particularly as we enter the very late stage of the economic cycle. Equity volatility tends to pick up during the end of the economic cycle and remain in a high regime until recession kicks in.

Although every business cycle is different, they tend to follow a similar pattern. Convention has it that when economic activity starts deteriorating, sectors with greater visibility on earnings and dividend payments such as healthcare and utilities tend to prove more resilient. Quality income or volatility reduction strategies could also prove beneficial.

Invest at the different stages of the business cycle

How to choose the right sectors at the right time:


esg graph



2. The US braces for a slowdown


In the US, the recent escalation of the US/China trade war will feed into third quarter economic data and increases further the likelihood of a global slowdown and/or US recession. The Fed already signaled its readiness to act and the options market is currently pricing about three rate cuts before year end.  Policy support should allow the S&P 500 to regain some ground. That is, until a recession materialises sometime next year.


3. Europe faces many challenges 


In the euro area, Germany is facing some cyclical headwinds, while the outcome of Brexit, and for Italy, remain uncertain. Manufacturing activity is sliding, but services have remained resilient so far, bolstered by solid domestic demand. A further decline in manufacturing could spill over to capex, hiring and eventually private consumption. Weaker global trade and manufacturing is also likely to weigh further on profit growth in the coming months. Furthermore, the ECB has limited room for manoeuvre, particularly with sovereign rates already at such depressed levels.

In our view, eurozone equities will continue to lag the US, so we’re no more than neutral. We’d rather avoid Financials given the increasingly low rate environment and policy uncertainty in the UK and Italy. We maintain a preference for higher yielding and non-cyclical sectors such as Healthcare or Utilities, and quality income strategies.


4. Cherry picking in emerging markets


There would be no winner in a full-blown trade war between the US and China - see our Trade War Impact Indicator for a view of the most vulnerable countries. The latest data in Chinese activity point to further growth weakness, supply chain disruption, and a slump in global trade.

While the market may well remain volatile in the short-term, China itself looks to be the value trade, with domestic equities looking increasingly attractive. Policy support is likely to floor downside risks on earnings. Additionally, the opening-up of the market and the increase in the weight of A-shares in MSCI indices should act as a catalyst for inflows. In our view, Chinese equities should be seen as a strategic allocation in their own right, alongside traditional broad EM portfolios.

Meanwhile, India is one of the few bright spots within the developing world. The local equity market has relatively less exposure to global frictions, and one of the lowest correlations with the Chinese stock market. We believe India could continue to outperform Chinese equities over the coming weeks.

Risk Warning​

FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY– This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

This document has been provided by Lyxor International Asset Management that is solely responsible for its content.

Funds Sub-Funds Domiciled SIX Echange listing and licensed by FINMA
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor MSCI World Utilities TF UCITS ETF – Acc Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor MSCI World Health Care TR UCITS ETF – Acc Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor SG Global Quality Income NTR UCITS ETF – Acc Luxembourg No
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor FTSE All World Minimum Variance UCITS ETF – Acc Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor S&P 500 UCITS ETF – Dist Luxembourg Yes
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Utilities UCITS ETF - Acc Luxembourg No
Lyxor Index Fund Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Health Care UCITS ETF – Acc Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units Luxembourg Lyxor FTSE Europe Minimum Variance (DR) UCITS ETF – Acc Luxembourg Yes
Multi Units France Lyxor Hwabao WP MSCI China A (DR) UCITS ETF – Acc France Yes
Multi Units France Lyxor MSCI India UCITS ETF – Acc  France Yes

The funds that are specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange / licensed by FINMA] in the chart comprised in this document (Registered Funds) are collective investment schemes approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (FINMA) as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA) for distribution in Switzerland to non-Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA. The above mentioned Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.

The funds that are not specified as being listed on SIX Swiss Exchange / licensed by FINMA in the chart comprised in this document (non-Registered Funds, and together with the Registered Funds, the Funds) are collective investment schemes not approved by the FINMA as foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to article 120 of the CISA for distribution in Switzerland. Accordingly, the non-Registered Funds may be offered in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined in the CISA and its implementing ordinance. 

This document is reserved and must be given in Switzerland exclusively to Qualified Investors as defined by the Swiss Collective Investment Scheme Act of 23 June 2006 (as amended from time to time, CISA).

Financial intermediaries (including particularly, representatives of private banks or independent asset managers, Intermediaries) are hereby reminded on the strict regulatory requirements applicable under the CISA to any distribution of foreign collective investment schemes in Switzerland. It is each Intermediary’s sole responsibility to ensure that (i) all these requirements are put in place prior to any Intermediary distributing any of the Funds presented in this document and (ii) that otherwise, it does not take any action that could constitute distribution of collective investment schemes in Switzerland as defined in article 3 CISA and related regulation.

Any information in this document is given only as of the date of this document and is not updated as of any date thereafter.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, an invitation to make an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to invest in collective investment schemes.  This document is not a prospectus as per article 652a or 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations, a listing prospectus according to the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange or any other trading venue as defined by the Swiss Financial Market Infrastructure Act of 19 June 2015 (as amended from time to time, FMIA), a simplified prospectus, a key investor information document or a prospectus as defined in the CISA.

An investment in collective investment schemes involves significant risks that are described in each prospectus or offering memorandum. Each potential investor should read the entire prospectus or offering memorandum and should carefully consider the risk warnings and disclosures before making an investment decision.

Any benchmarks/indices cited in this document are provided for information purposes only.

This document is not the result of a financial analysis and therefore is not subject to the “Directive on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association.

This document does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investments in financial products. 

The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Funds in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, 8001 Zurich.

The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

In respect to the units/shares of the Funds distributed in and from Switzerland, place of performance and jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Representative in Switzerland. 

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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